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Chips-n-Dips
by Dennis Stacy |
| Lesser's Law Trumps Moore's
December, 2002 |
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Who among us isn’t familiar with Moore’s Law? Writing in 1965, Intel cofounder Gordon Moore postulated that the number of transistors that could be crammed onto a silicon chip would double roughly every 18 months. Despite frequent predictions of its imminent demise, Moore’s Law continues to hold sway. Today’s Pentium 4 chip contains 42 million transistors. Compare that to Intel’s first chip, the 4004, introduced in 1971, which consisted of a mere 2,250 transistors. Perhaps less well known is Lesser’s Law, named after Baltimore, MD, shoe salesman Mort Lesser (b. 1955). Mort was a man of firsts: in his quest for the perfect computer, he bought the first TI 99, Radio Shack 100, Commodore 64, Amiga, Osborne portable and Kaypro II packable, thus giving rise to the rule that now bears his name. In a nut shell, Lesser’s Law says that no matter what computer or electronic product you purchase, it will be superceded and obsolete within six months, if not the very next day, usually at the same or a lower price. Don’t know about you, but I’m here to testify that that’s certainly been my experience. A couple of years ago I bought the new top of the line Apple laptop, the so-called TiBook, fresh off their Taiwan assembly line. Couldn’t have been a couple months before the company released a new model with a better screen, faster CPU, and bigger hard drive — at the same price. This year my wife picked up a 5GB iPod for her iBook. Within weeks Apple announced 10 and 20GB versions, but at least at (arguably justifiable) higher prices. This is not the Forbidden Fruit Syndrome; Lesser’s Law applies across the board. Take that spiffy new Microsoft keyboard I bought a few months ago. Wonderful device, but it had cables running everywhere. Last month Microsoft introduced a new lineup of wireless keyboard and mice. Wish I’d waited. The list is never ending. I bought Photoshop Elements for my new Toshiba Satellite laptop and Adobe released the new, improved Version 2.0 before I could get home. Incidentally, USB 2.0 came out 34 minutes after I bought the USB 1.0 Satellite. The same thing happened with Microsoft Picture It! I bought a copy and the Redmond monolith immediately released Picture It! Digital Image Pro. (Don’t ask me why I thought I needed two image editing programs on the same computer, I just did.) Worse than that slap in the face, right after I plunked down the plastic for Digital Image Pro, Microsoft issued its Works Suite 2003 — which contains six programs, including Picture It!, Word, MS Works, and Money 2003 Standard — for virtually the same price I’d earlier paid for Picture It! alone. I bought ScanSoft’s OmniPage Pro 10, an OCR program, and OmniPage Pro 12 magically manifested on shelves everywhere, seemingly within hours. Endless software upgrades aside, if it’s got a chip in it, Moore’s Law is most likely driving performance up and prices down, from digital cameras and DVD read/write drives, to HDTV sets and LCD monitors. From microwave ovens to coffee makers. And did I mention ink-jet printers, manufacturers of which seem to come up with a new model almost every Monday? Just as there is no way of circumventing Moore’s Law (and why would you want to, anyway), neither is there any way of getting around Lesser’s Law, try as you might. The two go hand in hand, although there is no conclusive historical evidence that Moore and Lesser ever met in person or engaged in commercial conspiracy, despite Rush Limbaugh’s claims to the contrary. (Lesser is a self-professed bachelor who has never been west of the Mississippi.) Lesser’s Law virtually guarantees that you’re behind the curve, no matter how cheap the product is perceived as being at the time of purchase. There is no getting ahead. Even if the price doesn’t change in future revisions of a particular product, the feature set almost assuredly will, leaving early buyers bereft of bragging rights before they can even get warmed up. “You got a five megapixel Sony digital camera? Ha, check out this Nikon six megapixel CoolPix!” I’ve already mentioned USB 2.0, but a newer, faster version of Firewire is on the way, as is Bluetooth, which will inspire a whole new generation of wireless peripherals. So what’s the perplexed consumer to do? Grin and bear it. Go out and get what you need that works for you — and then quit reading the “First Looks” section in PC Magazine. It’ll only make you feel shortchanged and inadequate, and who wants to live like that? Out of curiosity, I thought I’d see if Lesser himself had any buying tips for the upcoming Shopping Season (aka Christmas) for PC Alamode readers. But when I rang his Baltimore apartment his mother answered. “Mort’s not here right now,” she said. “He ran down to Gateway to get one of those new plasma TVs. Can I take a message?” “Yeah,” I said. “Tell him he should’ve waited a week.” |
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